Australian GP 2019 ?>

Australian GP 2019

The new season is starting and the teams have given us a first glimpse of their 2019 cars and performance. The most visible change to the cars this year will be the front wing. The new wings will be wider but, most importantly, simpler. The vortex-generating fins have been stripped off in an effort to minimize the turbulence created by the front wing and help the cars race closer to each other. Will this improve racing in 2019? I am not too optimistic but we’ll find out soon.

In the first week of the tests in Barcelona, the Ferraris seems to have the upper hand but without knowing the fuel loads and how much each team was sandbagging, we cannot be sure about their actual performance. Without the model viewing any of the test data, its predictions are only based on the past years performance of the drivers and cars. I’m expecting the model to get more accurate as the season goes forward since it will get access to any changes in competitiveness of the teams. That’s why you see some unexpected results in the table below. The model is confused, isn’t it?

Driver Qualifying Prediction Actual Qualifying Result Race Prediction Actual Race Result
Bottas 4 2 2 1
Hamilton 1 1 1 2
Verstappen 7 4 4 3
Vettel 5 3 3 4
Leclerc 8 5 5 5
Magnussen 19 7 8 6
Hulkenberg 14 11 14 7
Raikkonen 2 9 6 8
Stroll 20 16 18 9
Kvyat 12 15 15 10
Gasly 16 17 17 11
Norris 10 8 9 12
Perez 15 10 11 13
Albon 17 13 13 14
Giovinazzi 13 14 12 15
Russell 18 19 19 16
Kubica 6 20 20 17
Grosjean 9 6 7 R
Ricciardo 3 12 10 R
Sainz 11 18 16 R
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