The new season is finally starting and I can’t wait to watch the Australian GP. The new cars are an evolution of the previous ones since there was no major change in the rules. The most visible changes are the introduction of the much debated Halo device – which I’m not fan of although it doesn’t look as bad as I expected – and the removal of the shark fin and the T-wing. Of course, McLaren has switched engines with Toro Rosso and it remains to be seen if Alonso can get back to his winning days.

The winter testing in Barcelona has showed that the pecking order might have some changes from 2017. Mercedes and Ferrari keep looking the teams to beat with Red Bull coming third. It will be difficult for Force India to keep their 4th position in the constructors championship given that both Renault and McLaren are looking strong. Williams will also try to gain something, however it’ll be difficult with two junior drivers. I’m looking forward to seeing Leclerc’s progress and whether he’ll jump to a Ferrari seat next year. Note that the predictive model has not seen data from winter testing, so all predictions are based on past years’ results. I expect the model to start capturing any new patterns within the first 3-4 races.

The world champion, Lewis Hamilton, is predicted to qualify 1st with Bottas 2nd. Behind them, the two Ferraris and the two Red Bulls. Personally, I expect a Renault or a McLaren to come 7th despite the model voting for the Force India drivers. Race predictions will be updated after the qualifying session.

Driver	Qualifying Prediction	Actual Qualifying Result	Race Prediction	Actual Race Result
Vettel	3	3	2	1
Hamilton	1	1	1	2
Raikkonen	4	2	3	3
Ricciardo	9	8	6	4
Alonso	11	10	12	5
Verstappen	5	4	4	6
Hulkenberg	8	7	7	7
Bottas	2	15	5	8
Vandoorne	15	11	14	9
Sainz	10	9	8	10
Perez	6	12	11	11
Ocon	7	14	13	12
Leclerc	20	18	18	13
Stroll	12	13	15	14
Hartley	19	16	17	15
Grosjean	13	6	10	R
Magnussen	16	5	9	R
Gasly	18	20	20	R
Ericsson	17	17	19	R
Sirotkin	14	19	16	R