Bahrain GP 2018
After a surprising, in many ways, Australian GP, Formula 1 heads to Bahrain for the 2nd round of the championship. Ferrari will try to repeat the win, however this seems rather unlikely! I think everyone expects to see what the Haas drivers can do if their pit crew does its job properly! As an Alonso fan, I’m looking forward to watching him grabbing any opportunity that arises to gain positions.
The model thinks that Hamilton will qualify first. I couldn’t agree more with that! I personally think that Lewis will storm both the qualifying session and the race and will try to prove (not that he needs to) that he drives at the best of his vast abilities. It’s time for Bottas to present some opposition and we hope we have a 3-way fight at the front. The model has placed the Haas drivers much lower than what we should expect in reality. This is because they did not finish the previous race and therefore the model did not ‘see’ their strong performance.
As always, race predictions have been updated after the qualifying session.
Hamilton has received a 5 place grid penalty.
| Driver | Qualifying Prediction | Actual Qualifying Result | Race Prediction | Actual Race Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vettel | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bottas | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Hamilton | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Gasly | 19 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
| Magnussen | 12 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
| Hulkenberg | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| Alonso | 8 | 13 | 12 | 7 |
| Vandoorne | 13 | 14 | 13 | 8 |
| Ericsson | 18 | 17 | 17 | 9 |
| Ocon | 11 | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| Sainz | 10 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| Perez | 9 | 12 | 11 | 12 |
| Hartley | 17 | 11 | 16 | 13 |
| Leclerc | 16 | 19 | 19 | 14 |
| Grosjean | 14 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| Stroll | 15 | 20 | 18 | 16 |
| Sirotkin | 20 | 18 | 20 | 17 |
| Raikkonen | 3 | 2 | 2 | R |
| Verstappen | 4 | 15 | 6 | R |
| Ricciardo | 5 | 4 | 5 | R |
4 thoughts on “Bahrain GP 2018”
Hello! Nice to see it so early.
I think there’s a huge underestimating for Haas drivers, because they’re already have 5 and 6 places in the 1st qualifications, despite predicted 13 and 16. I think this is the bright example how team’s performance can changed between the seasons. Believe they both will be in top 10 in qualification. And Alonso mention that Haas has a construction the same as a last year’s ferrari.
Yes, totally agree! As I wrote above, the model was not able to see their great performance in the race since both Haas drivers did not finish it. I think in a few races they will be predicted higher.
Hi,
In case of a dnf, would it make sense for the model to look at position, positions gained/lost, etc. at time of dnf to better interpret the significance of the dnf?
Best, Erik
Currently, the model ignores DNFs. So, the predictions are based on the assumption that all drivers will finish the race.
Since retirements are a bit rare (on a per-driver basis), I’m not sure if it worth’s making predictions taking into account possible retirement.