Chinese GP 2018

Chinese GP 2018

Next up is the Chinese Grand Prix which comes after the Bahrain GP which had everything: the amazing 3-way overtake of Hamilton, both Red Bulls DNF’d, Raikkonen running over his mechanic at the pit-stop, Gasly finishing P4, Ericsson P9 and Vettel winning the race despite using his soft tyres for almost 40 laps! Will this GP be as exciting as the previous one?

After the recent success of Ferrari, the model thinks that Vettel and Raikkonen will occupy the first row of the grid while the Mercedes’ and Red Bulls will follow in the next two rows respectively. Surprisingly, Alonso is expected to qualify at P8. Regarding the race, the initial predictions show that Sebastian, Kimi and Lewis will be the ones on the podium. As always, race predictions have been updated after the qualifying session.

Driver Qualifying Prediction Actual Qualifying Result Race Prediction Actual Race Result
Ricciardo 6 6 6 1
Bottas 4 3 4 2
Raikkonen 2 2 2 3
Hamilton 3 4 3 4
Verstappen 5 5 5 5
Hulkenberg 7 7 7 6
Alonso 8 13 8 7
Vettel 1 1 1 8
Sainz 10 9 11 9
Magnussen 9 11 9 10
Ocon 14 12 13 11
Perez 12 8 10 12
Vandoorne 15 14 14 13
Stroll 18 18 19 14
Sirotkin 20 16 20 15
Ericsson 17 20 18 16
Grosjean 13 10 12 17
Gasly 11 17 15 18
Leclerc 19 19 17 19
Hartley 16 15 16 20
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9 thoughts on “Chinese GP 2018

  1. Hard to predict results in a race like this. However I was almost certain that Bottas will be better than Ham after his interview after qualification, where Lewis said that he doesn’t know how to solve handling problems.

  2. Tried to predict recent 2 qualifications – without huge success – model predicts all (or almost all) first. I will try to balanced my data-sets as you’ve been suggested. And also hope that more data will be added with every race, so it also will affect prediction results.

    1. OK great! You could use data from past years to increase your training set! Let me know of your progress!

      1. Thank you!
        So far I added all results from start of 2017 manually and continue to add it after every event. For grab data for past years I will try to write a scrambler from FIA site. At least it should work in a way that you give him exact page and he will find proper table and parse it. The only thing I don’t know where it will be, hope soon… but definitely after i will write a function to balance my dataset, I think it will affect my results more than additional data.

  3. Hi Asterios,

    I only just found your blog recently, but I absolutely love it!

    I started writing this comment, because I wanted to ask if there is a possibility you could post percentages of driver A qualifying ahead of driver B etc. But then I found out you already share them via an API, wonderful!

    Keep up the good work and many thanks!

    1. Hi Vincent, thanks for your nice words.

      I’m already working on a new API where you will be able to ask data for historic races as well. Stay tuned!

      May I ask you something? What are you using the pairwise probabilities for? Is it for betting in head-to-head markets?

  4. No, it is for a F1 game with friends :p

    My knowledge of F1 is very limited, so this is really helpful!

    The API is already updated to the Azerbaijan race, can I still see the probabilities of the China race somewhere?

    Since I copied the probabilities of the qualification, but unfortunately not the race probabilities.

    1. I will send you the probabilities to your email!

      Please let me know how you progress on this F1 game heheh!

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