Emilia Romagna GP 2022

Emilia Romagna GP 2022

Ferrari is leading the F1 constructors championship and the upcoming race is held Imola… you can imagine how fascinating the atmosphere created by the tifosis is going to be! Moreover, this race will feature the Sprint format. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of that concept but it, indeed, produced an amazing race last year in Brazil (although this should be attributed to Hamilton, not to the sprint format).

The model predicts the championship leader, Charles Leclerc, to take both the pole and the race win. Verstappen is predicted to start 2nd but finish the race only 5th given Red Bull’s continued technical niggles. It will be interesting to watch if the McLarens can keep up with the other mid-top teams or if their performance in Melbourne was circuit-specific.

As always, you can access the power predictions here.

Driver Qualifying Prediction Actual Qualifying Result Race Prediction Actual Race Result
Verstappen 2 1 2 1
Perez 3 7 4 2
Norris 8 3 5 3
Russell 7 11 10 4
Bottas 4 8 8 5
Leclerc 1 2 1 6
Tsunoda 15 16 14 7
Vettel 18 9 16 8
Magnussen 12 4 9 9
Stroll 19 15 18 10
Albon 17 20 19 11
Gasly 13 17 15 12
Hamilton 6 13 12 13
Ocon 9 19 13 14
Zhou 14 14 11 15
Latifi 20 18 20 16
Schumacher 16 12 17 17
Ricciardo 10 6 7 18
Alonso 11 5 6 R
Sainz 5 10 3 R
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6 thoughts on “Emilia Romagna GP 2022

  1. I just found this website and it is very interesting.
    Rain is probable for part of the weekend and Alonso is a great wet weather driver so I think that he’ll eighth or higher in the race. Also my gut tells me that Magnussen will be in the top eight also but I can’t back that up with logic.

    I will follow your predictions to see how well the machine does.

    1. Thank you. I would love to have historical weather data available to train the models on… but I could not find any consistent data source.

        1. That’s cool, thanks. Then I would need to get the weather forecast for the upcoming race. I may work on that in the future..

  2. I noticed that your Power Predictions show Kevin Magnussen has a 64.6% chance of being in the top ten (Strategy 3) and your prequalifying race prediction list him at position 14.

    1. You’re right. There are many reasons why this happened. The race predictions assume that everyone will finish the race (i.e. they assume no retirements) while power predictions do not.

      Secondly, the race predictions are comparative while power predictions are not. The race prediction model predicts the probability of each driver finishing ahead of every other. – it calculates all pairwise probabilities. These probabilities are then converted to a ranking. The power prediction model directly estimates the probability of each driver finishing in the top 3, 6 or 10.

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