Charles Leclerc finally managed to get a race victory after 3 winless months! Despite that, he reduced the points difference from Max by only 5 points thanks to the sprint race result and the fastest lap extra point given to the latter. Mercedes showed some signs of genuine performance improvements and the upcoming, smooth, French GP should suit their high-bouncing car. Can this be the race where Lewis gets his first win of the season? I doubt it but let’s see if the 7-time world champion can pull a rabbit out of his hat.

The model gives Verstappen a 61% chance over Leclerc in qualifying and a 72% in the race. I believe that the real chances of a 3rd straight Ferrari win are better than that. I think the Maranello team will be able to get an 1-2 and gain moment just before the summer break.

You can access the power predictions here.

Sainz and Magnussen are required to start race from the back of the grid for use of additional power unit elements.

Driver	Qualifying Prediction	Actual Qualifying Result	Race Prediction	Actual Race Result
Verstappen	1	2	2	1
Hamilton	5	4	5	2
Russell	6	6	6	3
Perez	4	3	3	4
Sainz	3	19	4	5
Alonso	9	7	8	6
Norris	10	5	7	7
Ocon	8	10	10	8
Ricciardo	13	9	11	9
Stroll	20	15	17	10
Vettel	17	12	15	11
Gasly	14	14	16	12
Albon	18	13	19	13
Bottas	7	11	9	14
Schumacher	12	17	18	15
Zhou	15	16	14	16
Latifi	19	18	20	R
Magnussen	11	20	12	R
Leclerc	2	1	1	R
Tsunoda	16	8	13	R