Canadian GP 2017
I’m proud to announce that the predictions for the next Grand Prix are based on an entirely new modelling approach that promises significantly improved prediction accuracy. The new approach also offers deeper insight by giving for each pair of drivers the probability of the former starting or finishing above the latter. For the upcoming qualifying session, Hamilton edges Vettel by the slightest of margins (50.3% probability of Hamilton starting in front of Vettel). Race predictions have been updated after the qualifying. Will Kimi pass Bottas for the last place on the podium?
Personally I expect Canada to be a track that favors Ferrari’s characteristics. The model seems to agree with me and predicts a second 1-2 from Ferrari in a row. I think the Force Indias will also be very strong while Alonso might already be thinking of going to IndyCar full-time next year. Let’s hope he gets a championship-winning car soon.
Driver | Qualifying Prediction | Actual Qualifying Result | Race Prediction | Actual Race Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Bottas | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Ricciardo | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Vettel | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Perez | 7 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
Ocon | 10 | 9 | 9 | 6 |
Raikkonen | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
Hulkenberg | 9 | 10 | 12 | 8 |
Stroll | 15 | 17 | 18 | 9 |
Grosjean | 13 | 14 | 13 | 10 |
Palmer | 17 | 15 | 14 | 11 |
Magnussen | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 |
Ericsson | 20 | 19 | 20 | 13 |
Vandoorne | 19 | 16 | 17 | 14 |
Wehrlein | 18 | 20 | 19 | 15 |
Alonso | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 |
Kvyat | 12 | 11 | 11 | R |
Verstappen | 5 | 5 | 5 | R |
Massa | 11 | 7 | 7 | R |
Sainz | 8 | 13 | 10 | R |
8 thoughts on “Canadian GP 2017”
Personally I would swap Vettel and Hamilton. Ferrari now is on the move and faster than Mercedes, at least in the qualifications.
I agree. Judging by the free practice sessions, even Kimi could qualify second.
Well, the model was pretty spot-on in the top-6 drivers! 😀 Knows more than we do!
First 6 it’s impressive result! Congratulations! Will see how good it predicts race.
The model predicts that Kimi will pass Bottas and get to the podium. Let’s see!
I think prediction race results is much tougher than qualification.
True! I hope I’ll find some time to write a post about how the model is performing on quali and races so far…