The championship lead has changed once more this season after Lewis’ 5th place in the Turkish GP. Max is 6 points ahead with six 6 races to go but Mercedes is in the top of the constructors title – partly due to Bottas’ victory in the last race. The upcoming race is held in the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas in a race that is predicted to be exciting. Daniel Ricciardo will also have the chance to drive Dale Earnhardt Sr’s 1984 Chevrolet Monte Carlo NASCAR car after winning a bet with McLaren CEO Zak Brown.

The model gives Verstappen a 56% chance to out-qualify Hamilton but only a 50.5% chance of actually finishing ahead in the race. The close battle in the circuit is translated to such close probabilities on the model. Further behind, I would expect the Ferraris to be strong given their recent engine upgrade.

You can access the power predictions here.

Driver	Qualifying Prediction	Actual Qualifying Result	Race Prediction	Actual Race Result
Verstappen	1	1	1	1
Hamilton	2	2	2	2
Perez	4	3	3	3
Leclerc	7	4	4	4
Ricciardo	6	6	7	5
Bottas	3	9	5	6
Sainz	8	5	6	7
Norris	5	7	8	8
Tsunoda	13	10	11	9
Vettel	14	18	13	10
Giovinazzi	16	12	16	11
Stroll	12	13	14	12
Raikkonen	18	15	15	13
Russell	15	20	17	14
Latifi	17	14	18	15
Schumacher	19	16	19	16
Mazepin	20	17	20	17
Alonso	10	19	12	R
Ocon	11	11	10	R
Gasly	9	8	9	R