United States GP 2021
The championship lead has changed once more this season after Lewis’ 5th place in the Turkish GP. Max is 6 points ahead with six 6 races to go but Mercedes is in the top of the constructors title – partly due to Bottas’ victory in the last race. The upcoming race is held in the Circuit of the Americas (COTA) in Austin, Texas in a race that is predicted to be exciting. Daniel Ricciardo will also have the chance to drive Dale Earnhardt Sr’s 1984 Chevrolet Monte Carlo NASCAR car after winning a bet with McLaren CEO Zak Brown.
The model gives Verstappen a 56% chance to out-qualify Hamilton but only a 50.5% chance of actually finishing ahead in the race. The close battle in the circuit is translated to such close probabilities on the model. Further behind, I would expect the Ferraris to be strong given their recent engine upgrade.
You can access the power predictions here.
Driver | Qualifying Prediction | Actual Qualifying Result | Race Prediction | Actual Race Result |
---|---|---|---|---|
Verstappen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Perez | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Leclerc | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Ricciardo | 6 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
Bottas | 3 | 9 | 5 | 6 |
Sainz | 8 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
Norris | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
Tsunoda | 13 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
Vettel | 14 | 18 | 13 | 10 |
Giovinazzi | 16 | 12 | 16 | 11 |
Stroll | 12 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
Raikkonen | 18 | 15 | 15 | 13 |
Russell | 15 | 20 | 17 | 14 |
Latifi | 17 | 14 | 18 | 15 |
Schumacher | 19 | 16 | 19 | 16 |
Mazepin | 20 | 17 | 20 | 17 |
Alonso | 10 | 19 | 12 | R |
Ocon | 11 | 11 | 10 | R |
Gasly | 9 | 8 | 9 | R |